Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will submit the terms to the Russian leadership.
Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist
After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.
In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.
Security Guarantees and International Support
“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.
On Monday, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.
Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”
They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.
Kremlin Response and Land Issue
On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept troops from NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”
The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.
The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.
“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.
Path Forward and Potential Outcomes
It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.
“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.
“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.
